Replace: On March 29, 2022, the Meals and Drug Administration (FDA) licensed a second booster dose (4th dose) for these ages 50 and older (and for immunocompromised people). We’ve got added the 50+ state of affairs to our evaluation.
With Congress having reached a funding stalemate relating to further COVID-19 help, the White Home has stated that the federal authorities “doesn’t have ample sources to buy sufficient booster vaccine doses for all Individuals, if further doses are wanted.” We sought to evaluate this by estimating how far the present U.S. provide of COVID-19 vaccines may stretch underneath totally different situations. To take action, we seemed on the variety of COVID-19 vaccine doses the federal authorities has already bought, the variety of folks already vaccinated and boosted. We then estimated the variety of further doses that may be required to fill any gaps wanted to achieve vaccination targets, together with to completely vaccinate those that nonetheless haven’t accomplished a major sequence, underneath totally different assumptions about additional booster protection with 3rd and 4th doses. We assumed that major vaccination will quickly be licensed for all ages, and examined the long run provide of mRNA vaccine doses solely (i.e., Johnson and Johnson doses weren’t included). We assessed the next 4 situations:
- Offering a 4th dose to these ages 50 and older
- Offering a 4th dose to these ages 65 and older
- Offering a 4th dose to these ages 18 and older
- Offering a 4th dose to all ages
For every state of affairs, we checked out provide wanted to buy sufficient doses to achieve two vaccine protection targets: 70% and 100%. Information are as of March 20, 2022 (see strategies for sources and extra particulars).
- We discover that the federal authorities doesn’t have sufficient vaccine doses remaining in its present provide to completely cowl the U.S. inhabitants with a 4th dose underneath any of those situations.
- The deficit between present provide and doses required is most acute (484 million doses) if a 4th dose is allowed for all ages and sufficient doses are bought to cowl 100% of the inhabitants. Nevertheless, a deficit nonetheless exists even when 4th doses are wanted just for these ages 65 and older (162.5 million doses), in addition to for the bigger age group of individuals 50 and older (a deficit of 225 million doses), as licensed by the FDA on March 29..
- When a 70% inhabitants protection goal is used as an alternative, there’s nonetheless a provide deficit (118.3 million doses) if 4th doses are bought for these of all ages, and a modest deficit to achieve 70% of these ages 18 and older with a 4th dose (34 million). There are sufficient doses to cowl 70% of these ages 65 and older with a 4th dose in addition to 70% of these ages 50 and older.
- Based mostly on the bottom accessible costs paid per dose by the U.S. authorities for home vaccine provide ($15.00/dose for Moderna and $19.50 for Pfizer), we estimate that further funding required ranges from $509.5 million (if all future doses have been Moderna and sufficient have been bought to achieve 70% protection of these 18 and older with a 4th dose) to $9.4 billion (if all future doses have been Pfizer and sufficient have been bought to achieve 100% of all ages with a 4th dose).
With the FDA authorizing a 4th dose for these ages 50 and older, our evaluation finds that the U.S. authorities at present has bought sufficient vaccine doses for 70% of this age group to obtain a 4th dose, and for finishing vaccination for others. Whereas the federal government doesn’t have sufficient doses to cowl all these ages 50 and older, it’s also unlikely that 4th dose take-up will strategy 100% of the inhabitants anytime quickly. If 4th dose authorization is additional expanded, potential provide constraints will develop.
|Situation||70% Protection||100% Protection|
|4th dose to 50+||240,419,688||528,522,614|
|4th dose to 65+||196,460,245||465,723,410|
|4th dose to 18+||337,162,096||666,726,055|
|4th dose to all ages||421,517,894||787,234,338|
|Situation||70% Protection||100% Protection|
|4th dose to 50+||62,775,437||(225,327,489)|
|4th dose to 65+||106,734,880||(162,528,285)|
|4th dose to 18+||(33,966,971)||(363,530,930)|
|4th dose to all ages||(118,322,769)||(484,039,213)|
|We calculated the quantity of people that would must be vaccinated within the U.S. to achieve 70% and 100% vaccine protection by age group. We in contrast these ranges to the quantity who had already accomplished a major COVID-19 vaccine sequence (in the event that they obtained two doses of the two-dose mRNA sequence or one dose of a single-dose vaccine), and the quantity who had obtained a 3rd dose (booster) by age group. We then seemed on the further doses wanted for 4 situations: (1) offering a 4th dose to these ages 50 and older 2) offering a 4th dose to these ages 65 and older; (3) offering a 4th dose to these ages 18 and older; and (4) offering a 4th dose to all ages. For every state of affairs, we assessed the variety of doses wanted to finish the first vaccine sequence and, for situations 1-3, the variety of doses wanted to offer a 3rd dose to all these ages 12 and older, as is at present beneficial by CDC, earlier than including a 4th dose. For state of affairs 4, we assumed a 3rd dose can be beneficial for all ages. For every of the 4 situations, we examined each 70% and 100% protection targets, leading to 8 distinct provide requirement outcomes. We then in contrast the variety of further doses wanted in every provide consequence to the variety of doses remaining within the present U.S. vaccine provide, and decided the quantity of provide surplus or deficit. We assumed that any doses already delivered (whether or not administered but or not) have been now not accessible for functions of the remaining provide. We additionally didn’t embody remaining J&J vaccines within the accessible future provide and we eliminated Moderna doses already supplied for worldwide use from the accessible provide. Lastly, we estimated the potential value of buying further doses if extra have been wanted. We used the estimated value paid per dose for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines utilizing the bottom accessible value per dose estimate paid thus far amongst provide contracts. Information on the scale of the U.S. inhabitants by age group have been obtained from the U.S. Census. Information on the variety of U.S. vaccine doses bought and estimated value per dose have been obtained from official U.S. authorities, pharmaceutical firm releases, and the UNICEF COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard. Information on the variety of vaccine doses delivered and variety of folks vaccinated have been obtained from the CDC COVID Information Tracker and are present as of March 20, 2022.|